Fresh tokens are a small slice of all prefill (the paper’s tab:redundant_prefill): only 16.0%
of appended tokens are genuinely new (9.5% Claude, 28.7% Codex), so the remaining ~84% is in
principle cache-serviceable — the gap to optimal. Inverting the fresh fraction gives the prefill
amplification factor, how many times more tokens are prefilled than an eviction-free perfect cache
would need: 6.3x overall (10.5x Claude, 3.5x Codex). The split is sharply trigger-dependent:
user-initiated steps are almost entirely re-sent context (fresh is just 1.0% Claude / 9.6% Codex
of their append — a large window resent for a short new prompt), while tool-result steps carry
the bulk of the genuinely new content (27.4% / 40.7%). Codex runs hotter on fresh fraction than
Claude throughout, consistent with shorter resent windows and heavier tool output. The fresh % is
the ceiling on prefix-cache hit rate — compare it against the measured rates in cache_hit_ratio.